Weekly Intelligence Briefs

Weekly Intelligence Brief — Week of May 25–31, 2026 ENERGY — 🟡 THE FLOOR IS MOVING Brent fell more than 5% this week, closing around $103 on Friday, while WTI shed over 8% — the second consecutive weekly loss despite an unchanged physical reality on the water. The driver was diplomatic signal, not structural change. On Monday, President Trump posted that negotiations with Iran over an interim deal to extend their ceasefire and reopen Hormuz were "proceeding nicely" — enough

Weekly Intelligence Brief — Week of May 18–24, 2026 ENERGY — 🔴 CEASEFIRE MISPRICING AT ITS WIDEST Brent opened the week at $110/bbl on May 20 before pulling back sharply. Despite renewed hostilities — US forces striking Iranian military sites, Iran's Revolutionary Guard targeting US assets, and dual drone and missile launches at the UAE — markets continued pricing for diplomatic resolution rather than sustained escalation. The physical reality and the financial price are as

Weekly Intelligence Brief — Week of May 11–17, 2026 ENERGY — 🔴 PRICE PLATEAU, GRID INVESTMENT CONTINUES Brent closed the week in a $104–$108 range, settling around $105 on May 18 — a modest stabilization after weeks of sharp swings driven by ceasefire signal and diplomatic noise. The global financial community is no longer treating the Hormuz closure as temporary. HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent forecast to $95/bbl mid-week, citing a longer-than-modelled effective closure